Progress, but not yet mission accomplished

The first Market Movements of 2026. Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in November — the lowest since August — but it remains above the RBA target band. Direction encouraging, but the work isn’t done.

Key Takeaways

  • Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in November, down from 3.8% in October — lowest since August.
  • Trimmed mean (core) edged down to 3.2%; monthly CPI was flat.
  • Housing inflation slowed to 5.2% as electricity rebates expired and price growth eased.
  • Job ads fell 0.5% in November — sixth consecutive monthly decline. Annual ads -7.4% but still 6.2% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • AUD around US$0.668, near two-week lows. Q4 CPI later this month is the next major catalyst.
3.4%
Headline CPI (Nov)
3.2%
Trimmed mean
5.2%
Housing inflation

Market UpdateProgress but not yet mission accomplished

Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in November 2025, down from 3.8% in October and below market expectations, marking the lowest reading since August.

Inflation remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target, but the direction of travel is encouraging, reinforcing the view that price pressures are gradually moderating.

Housing inflation slowed to 5.2% as electricity price growth eased sharply following the expiry of government rebates — a key driver of the monthly improvement. Price growth also cooled across several discretionary categories including clothing, furnishings, health, recreation, alcohol and tobacco.

Transport, education and financial services inflation held steady, while food and communication costs picked up slightly, showing inflation is not falling evenly. Core inflation (trimmed mean) edged down to 3.2%, reinforcing the underlying cooling trend.

The monthly CPI was flat, and Australia has now fully transitioned to the monthly inflation series as its primary measure, giving policymakers more timely insight into inflation dynamics.

Consumer ConfidenceConfidence rises 3.0pts

"ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence had its usual jump in early January, however this is the weakest new year’s print in over 15 years. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex recorded the largest increase across the subindices and is now sitting at its third-highest reading since the beginning of 2025. Weekly inflation expectations eased 0.2ppt last week." Sophia Angala — ANZ Research

Labour MarketJob ads continue to cool

  • Australian job advertisements fell 0.5% in November 2025, extending a six-month downward trend.
  • The decline was milder than October’s revised 1.5% drop — softest monthly contraction since August.
  • Much of the weakness reflected seasonal effects in retail, sales and food services as temporary hiring wound down.
  • Pockets of strength remain in logistics, beauty & wellness, and healthcare (doctors and surgeons).
  • Annual job ads -7.4%, signalling softer labour demand — but postings remain 6.2% above pre-pandemic levels.

Foreign ExchangeAUD caught between global risk and rate expectations

  • The AUD hovered around US$0.668, trading near two-week lows as global uncertainty kept risk appetite subdued.
  • The currency struggled amid heightened Middle East tensions; Trump dialled back direct-action threats but the US reduced regional personnel.
  • Consumer inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.6% in January, barely changed from December.
  • Persistent expectations are reinforcing a hawkish monetary policy backdrop.
  • Q4 CPI later this month and December labour market data are key catalysts for the next RBA decision.
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Sources: Westpac Weekly (22 December), ABS, Trading Economics, ANZ-Roy Morgan, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads. This summary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

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