Key Takeaways
- Westpac now expects RBA hikes in both March and May; peak rate lifted to 4.35%.
- Markets pricing roughly 78% probability of an RBA move to 4.10% at the upcoming meeting.
- Around 60bps of additional rate increases priced over the next several months, with another move largely expected by August.
- Consumer confidence fell 3.7pts to its weakest since July 2023; inflation expectations at highest since Nov 2022.
- Australia’s residential dwelling stock now valued at around $12 trillion; mean dwelling price above $970,000.
Market UpdateRate outlook shifts as oil shock changes the calculus
Some economists, including Westpac, now expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bps in both March and May, lifting the expected peak rate to 4.35%. This marks a shift from the earlier view that only a single increase in May was likely.
The change largely reflects the recent surge in global oil prices, which is expected to push headline inflation higher in the near term. While the inflation impact from energy prices is likely to be significant but temporary, policymakers may still feel pressure to respond to prevent inflation expectations from drifting higher.
Recent RBA communications have also influenced expectations. Despite national accounts data suggesting a more benign picture around consumption and labour costs, the central bank continues to express concern about the economy’s limited supply capacity.
Looking further ahead, economists expect inflation to move closer to the 2.5% target midpoint and unemployment to rise, potentially paving the way for interest rate cuts beginning in late 2027 as policy settings gradually normalise.
Consumer ConfidenceConfidence falls 3.7pts to weakest since July 2023
Housing MarketAustralia’s $12 trillion housing market
- The total value of Australia’s residential dwellings has reached around $12 trillion, underscoring housing’s central role in household wealth.
- Average home values continue to rise — the national mean dwelling price now sits above $970,000.
- Population growth, limited housing supply and ongoing demand have all placed upward pressure on values.
- NSW remains the most valuable housing market, with Victoria and Queensland also representing significant portions.
- Residential property accounts for the largest share of household assets, far exceeding shares or super for many households.
Foreign ExchangeAUD steady near highs as rates and geopolitics collide
- The AUD trading around US$0.709, holding close to multi-year highs.
- Geopolitical tensions a major driver — Middle East escalation, energy infrastructure attacks and Hormuz threats have pushed oil higher and unsettled markets.
- Higher oil could increase global transportation and production costs, potentially delaying disinflation.
- Markets pricing ~78% probability of an RBA hike to 4.10% at the upcoming meeting.
- Around 60bps of additional rate increases priced through 2026; another move largely expected by August.
- The AUD outlook remains a tug-of-war between global risk-off USD strength and rising domestic rate expectations.
Sources: Westpac Weekly (9 March), ABS, Macrobond, Westpac Economics, ANZ-Roy Morgan, Trading Economics. This summary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.